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Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:


2024 Emmy Predictions:
Variety Categories (Pre-Recorded & Recorded)

Ricky Gervais
Courtesy of Netflix

Weekly Commentary (Updated: April 19, 2024): The two variety special categories at the Emmys offer a unique space where celebrities from across the spectrum of adoration, controversy, respect, and sympathy collide in a potential lineup.

The two awards for variety specials — pre-recorded and live — encompass a diverse range of contenders vying for Primetime Emmy consideration.

In the pre-recorded category, superstar Jennifer Lopez is hopeful with two entries: “Apple Music Live: Jennifer Lopez,” showcasing her performance of songs from her latest album “This Is Me…Now” and some of her greatest hits, and the visual component to her self-funded and $20 million ninth studio album, “This Is Me… Now: A Love Story” on Prime Video. While the concert film is likely her stronger bet for recognition, the multimedia companion piece drew criticism and viral reactions for some perceived “tone-deaf” segments, which could affect her standing with Emmy voters, and not necessarily in a negative manner. When people witness a relentless barrage of insults and criticism, it can often lead to some sympathy votes being cast. Moreover, in an era saturated with too much TV content, visibility to TV Academy voters can be half the battle.

Her concert special is her best shot, and comes with a friendly reminder. Lopez is no stranger to Emmy nods, having been nominated in the variety special (live) category for “Super Bowl LIV Halftime Show Starring Jennifer Lopez & Shakira” in 2020. Maybe a surprise second one is coming? Nonetheless, securing a nod won’t be easy for Lopez in the competitive pre-recorded landscape, facing off against multiple stand-up comedians such as five-time winner Dave Chappelle and two-time winner Ricky Gervais.

Gervais recently won the inaugural Golden Globe for best performance in stand-up comedy on television for his Netflix special “Armageddon,” boosting his chances despite facing scrutiny for his jokes. The Television Academy has historically embraced controversial comedians, as seen in Chappelle’s past wins for “Sticks & Stones” in 2020, and subsequent successes.

Additionally, the Emmy race will reveal if more introspective comedy specials find favor with voters. Ramy Youssef’s “More Feelings” on HBO/Max offered a timely and insightful exploration of a divided world amidst wars and politics.

Returning nominee Trevor Noah presents “Where Was I,” competing alongside streaming counterparts Amy Schumer, Tom Segura, Mike Birbiglia, and Pete Davidson for a coveted slot.

And let’s not forget the iconic 98-year-old Dick Van Dyke, whose CBS entertainment special showcased the legendary actor and performer during the holiday season. Who wouldn’t want to show some extra love to this Grammy, Emmy, and Tony award-winning icon?

In the live categories, it’ll be Super Bowl Halftime Show vs. the Oscars, who both stepped up their games considerably this year.

Read: All Primetime Emmy predictions in every category on Variety’s Awards Circuit.

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